Since October 7th, 2023, Hamas is fighting Israel in response to Israel’s continued occupation, blockade of Gaza, and expansion of settlements and since then it has been a major event that is responsible for regional instability. IDF recently issued a statement saying that a year ago, it set some targets which, they believe, are achieving one by one including a ground invasion of Gaza, killing Hamas leader “Ismail Haniyeh”, dismembering Hamas, and wiping out Hezbollah which is threatening to Israel’s own existence. Israel is quite successful in achieving its targets by invading Gaza, attacking the Iranian consulate in Damascus killing seven people including two Brigadier Generals of Quds force, assassinating Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran while he was there for the presidential ceremony of the new sworn in President “Masood Pezeshkian”, a reformist, and device attack targeting Hezbollah by concealing PETN inside the batteries of pagers.
On Friday 27th of September, IDF carried out a precise attack on residential building apartments in the heart of Dahieh in Beirut, assassinating secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, along with several of its senior commanders including Ali Karaki, Nabil Qauok, Samir Tawfeeq and Abbas Nilforoushan. The loss of such men left Hezballah and Iran in total chaos, deprived of skilled operators who retained profound military and international knowledge and experience. Hezbollah named Hashim Saffi-ud-Din as its successor, who was chairing its executive council and has been entrusted with various tasks over decades.
The assassination of Nasrallah in a command HQ, which came hardly a week after the deadly explosion of Hezbollah pagers and radios, is a big setback to Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, Houthis in Yemen and fighting groups in Syria and Iraq. Hezbollah has shown ability to replace its command efficiently because organizations like these are built on a specific cause and ideology which never dies and its leaders has already has a plan for their replacement in their hierarchy. Newly selected leader is considered more hardliner. Deputy secretary of Hezbollah has said in his statement that:
‘There is no path without sacrifice, we are the sons of martyrdom, and our resistance will continue. Hezbollah’s front will continue, everyone on the battlefield is ready, and despite the loss of our leader and commanders, we will not move aside, nor will we forsake our duty in support of Gaza and in defense of Lebanon’
This pretty much gives the idea that with or without Nasrallah, Hezbollah is going to follow its doctrine and won’t back down from supporting Gaza. This assassination has taken Middle East one step potentially closer, even more damaging, to the regional war. It’s not inevitable but what happens next depends on several factors.
What will Hezbollah do next?
Its command structure has been decapitated, its communication has been sabotaged and many of its weapons have been destroyed, still, it vows to destroy Israel and its members obeying for revenge. It still has a large arsenal of missiles that can reach Tel Aviv directly and there is a pressure in its ranks to use them presently before they get destroyed in an airstrike. But if they do so, Israel can wreak havoc on Lebanon, in response, even on Iran.
What will Iran do?
This assassination is much of a blow to Iran as it is to Hezbollah and other fighting groups. It already has announced five days of mourning and rallies across country has been places in solidarity with the martyred leader. It already has taken precautions in transferring the Supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamanei, to a safe place in case, he too is assassinated. Hardliners in Iran will be pushing for a response to this latest humiliation by Israel as it has a whole galaxy of allied militia across the middle east. They have got Houthis in Yemen, armed groups in Syria and Iraq. Iran could ask them to step up their attack on US bases in these regions. But whatever response Iran choses it will likely calibrated to be the short of triggering a war it cannot win.
What will Israel do?
Netanyahu in his statement at UN has said that It will not do a ceasefire now. It reckons that it has gotten Hezbollah on the backfoot now and it want to press on it until the threat of those missiles is removed. IDF ground troops can be seen going into Lebanon. They have been training it since last week and they will not stop until the threat of missile has completely vanished, many of which are underground. To cut it short, going in Lebanon for IDF is easy, but getting out could take months like in Gaza.
Muhammad Ismail Mir
Author is UK based junior geo-political analyst.
