The strategies of nations that try to lead in this most vital sector will be changed by a shifting global landscape of defense. Military hardware like tanks, aircraft, ships, and other weapon systems have dominated warfare for decades. In today’s interconnected world, the definition of “defense” has definitely moved beyond material assets towards a digital sphere. The cyber threat, in its evolvement as an aspiring potent force of modern warfare, has made integration of cyber defense solutions an imperative for all nations exporting defense products.
Rise of Cyber Threat: A New Battlefield
The digital revolution has been characterized by radical improvements in communication, automation, and operational efficiency during recent times. But with these advances comes a new and complex kind of threat landscape. Cyberattacks have become the single most important tool that nations, terrorist outfits, or rogue elements use to disrupt, paralyze, or bring under their control installations of critical infrastructure. Be it ransomware attacks against government networks, espionage directed at sensitive military data, or cyber sabotage intended to cripple defense systems… today’s digital battlefield has emerged as important as the physical one.
Countries exporting defense products cannot afford to be ignorant about the cyber domain. As much as a country will want to protect its national security physically, the ability to safeguard its systems against cyber threats is equally, it not even more critical. Any nation exporting defense products has to ensure that their products are state-of-the-art not only in terms of firepower and resilience but also that these products are impenetrable against the invisible, all-pervasive, and constantly evolving cyber threats that can nullify their very effectiveness, and endanger national security.
“Conventional” Cyber Weapons as a Portfolio Enrichment
Said vulnerabilities will inevitably increase in the next decade due to the interconnectedness of products, and services for reasons of convenience, and effectiveness. Cyber weapons will in the foreseeable future become more effective than those used in kinetic warfare simply due to their severe disruptive impact, the associated attribution challenges, as well as their cost/benefit ratio.
While conventional weapons will not cease to exist simply because of their deterrence factor, cyber weapons should definitely be included in the product portfolio of defence exporting nations, which in turn will make those nations developing state-of-the-art cyber weapons preferable to potential buyers.
Integrated Security Solutions: The New Standard
Today’s modern military platforms can’t be operated without sophisticated software, advanced communications networks, and automated systems, all of which introduce vulnerabilities, which can be exploited in case they’re not adequately protected.
A fighter aircraft, for instance, with ultra-modern weapons is of no utility if its systems are compromised by a cyber-attack that grounds it, or turns against the operator, or in case of a cyberattack against critical infrastructure prevents the operator from getting to their aircraft in the first place because they are stuck in traffic.
Integrated security solutions of that nature take the place of traditional defense products loaded out with state-of-the-art cyber defense capabilities. Those countries willing and able to offer such packages are likely to secure long-lasting partnerships and contracts. Incorporating cyber defense aspects into exported defense systems ensures that these systems are not only capable of defending against physical attacks but are also resilient against current, and evolving cyber threats.
Market Competitiveness and Strategic Influence
The global defense market is highly competitive, and nations fight to hold sway in individual regions and sectors. Cyber defense is rapidly becoming a decisive competitive differentiator. As cyber threats continue to increase in impact and complexity, so will the demand for state-of-the-art cybersecurity solutions. Countries that can list cyber defense products in their portfolio of exports are therefore much better positioned, and can benefit by satisfying this ever increasing demand, and thereby enhancing their market competitiveness.
The export of cyber defense solutions goes beyond a nations’s financial interests. It deals with strengthening strategic alliances with partner nations, enabling deeper cooperation in cybersecurity issues, and creating multilateral trust. Being able to provide secure and reliable tools for cyber defense in matters of high cyber sovereignty is an international relationship power play today.
Beyond Defense: Economic and Technological Innovation
Developing and exporting cyber defense products also entails domestic technological innovation, and economic growth . Cybersecurity, in nature, is a high-tech field requiring constant research and development. Those nations which invest heavily in cybersecurity not only create high-skilled jobs but spur innovation with far-reaching applications both for the civilian and military sectors.
The spillover from innovation in cybersecurity can be huge. For instance, innovations in encryption, network security, and data protection have applications that go far beyond defense and delve deep into industries like finance, health, and critical infrastructure. Being at the leading edge of cyber defense, nations are putting themselves at the leading edge of the wider digital, and exorbitantly growing economy.
Navigating Ethical and Strategic Complexities
However, the export of cyber defense products is not without concerns. There are ethical perspectives to consider, like regimes bound to misuse them. Another angle to conceive is the dual-use technology… cyber-defense products can easily be turned into offensive cyber weapons, which is why nations should be cautious in their dealings, and ensure that their exports comply to international laws, and ethical norms.
Cyber defense products also have an underappreciated potential for influencing global norms. Through high standards on cybersecurity and a model of ethical practices, exporting nations can set the way others view cyber defenses and perhaps take another step toward global security in cyber space.
Conclusion: The Future of Defense Exports
As the nature of warfare changes with each epoch, so too must the nature of products offered to the world change accordingly. Cyber defense moved from being a niche concern to a basic constituent of national security. For countries desirous of taking up leadership in the defense export market, incorporating cyber defense into their portfolios is not an option but a requirement.
Nations can share in protecting their interests by providing integrated, secure, and forward-looking defense solutions to support allies and partners in defending themselves, and at the same time strengthen their market position as well as contributing to a safer and more resilient global defense ecosystem.
The future for defense exports is one of protecting both the physical and the digital worlds; those who see this point the way forward in years to come.
Lars Hilse
Lars G. A. Hilse is an independent political/corporate advisor, and expert/witness in information security with a focus on the risks of cyber terrorism, and cyber warfare, and their impact on the security of critical, national/global infrastructurewith degrees in electrical engineering, and finance.
He maintains close cooperations withmilitary, law enforcement, and the intelligence community, and actively contributes to some of the most difficult, and notable cybercrime investigations.
He acts as a cyber-crisis-manager, and through his vast network is able to deploy highly specialised cyber-incident-response teams globally at breathtaking speeds.
In his capacity as an information security consultant he performs state-of-the-art risk assessments & mitigation directives, crisis response protocols, and establishes cyber security maturity models.
Among his other talents are intelligence gathering, accessing fortified infrastructure/networks, forensics, all with a focus on social engineering and other unorthodox access methods.
Since his first exposure to the internet at age 13, Hilse has constantly broadened his skillset in cybersecurity, focussing on cyber crime, cyber terrorism, and cyber defence.
Due to his precise foresight of all developments in the digital realm for over 25 years, he is repeatedly referred to as a global thought leader in cyber security, and digital strategy.
Hilse has privately funded research in cybersecurity worth over USD $1.000.000 since 2011. Some of the results hereof were the Advanced Cybersecurity Risk Assessment Checklist (ACRAC), and the advancement of several information security maturity models, and numerous papers and books (see below).
He acts as a political advisor among others to the European Parliament, proposing highly individualised, complex, multi-phase approaches in which a threat-landscape is established, risks identified thereien are mitigated, after which a (legislative) framework will reduce the potential fallout of cyberattacks.
